Jobs Report Sucker Punches Recovery!

In this column a few weeks ago I likened the economy and markets to being in the eye of a hurricane.

There had been some destruction in global stock markets created by the debt crisis in Europe, but the storm quieted down after the surprise EU/IMF announcement of a $1 trillion debt rescue plan. There was hope the danger had passed. But I suggested that, as in the eye of a hurricane, the other side of the storm was yet to arrive, and that sometimes it arrives with more fury than the first side.

It does seem we are now experiencing the back side of the financial storm and that it may indeed result in more serious damage.

The rescue package brought hope that the European debt crisis could be confined to Greece, that the European economic recovery would continue, that European banks would avoid serious fallout from the debt crisis.

The return of a positive outlook was in no small way related to confidence that the economic recovery in the U.S. would continue and become more robust, and that China’s strong economy would also continue to support the global recovery.

The Chinese stock market did not demonstrate the same confidence. It topped out last July and has been in a bear market since, having declined 27%. And in recent weeks it became clear what the Chinese stock market saw coming. The Chinese government has begun taking dramatic steps to take some air out of the Chinese real estate bubble, and stock markets are well aware of what happens to economies when real estate bubbles burst.

Meanwhile, the Greek debt crisis was contagious and spread to Portugal and Spain, with concerns rising about Ireland and Italy.

However, there was still confidence that the U.S. economy would continue to improve, even though some important parts of last year’s stimulus efforts, particularly for the housing industry, had expired at the end of April.

But then the latest economic reports began coming in.

In recent days it was reported that Pending Home Sales rose 6% in April, but that it was likely only due to a rush by home-buyers to get purchase contracts signed before the April 31 expiration of the home-buyer rebate program.

And sure enough, a few days later the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that while overall mortgage applications had increased 0.9% in the last week of May, the increase had been due to existing home-owners applying to refinance their mortgages to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Mortgage rates from those looking to buy a home, so-called ‘purchase applications’, had declined for the fourth straight week since the home-buyer bonus plan expired at the end of April, and are 40% below their level at the end of April. That cannot bode well for the next home sales reports.

Meanwhile, MasterCard’s SpendingPulse reported that retail sales in May were 3.7% below May of last year, the second month of declines after sales improved in the first quarter.

Consumers and the stock market really needed a strong employment report to offset those negative reports, if confidence that the economy continues to improve was to be kept alive.

Unfortunately, the jobs report Friday morning was dismal. The Labor Department reported that only 431,000 new jobs were created in May versus the consensus forecast of 515,000. And most of the new jobs, 411,000, were temporary census-taker jobs. Minus those, there were only 20,000 new jobs created. An awful report.

The unemployment rate did decline to 9.7% from the previous 9.9%. But even that was questionable as a positive, since it was primarily due to 322,000 unemployed dropping out of the unemployment picture because they gave up looking for a job.

Adding to the concerns, ill-winds continued to blow in from Europe with the statement of an official in Hungary that his country now faces a debt crisis similar to that of Greece.

The back side of hurricanes do pass, and the continuation of the financial hurricane will also pass. But the stock market must now worry about the damage that it leaves behind, not so much whether it has raised the odds of the economy sliding back into a double-dip recession, but the damage it has done to forecasts of a V-shaped recovery and the robust improvements in corporate earnings that have been factored into stock prices.

Confirmation Bias

One of the most important things that impacts us in personal, professional, and financial life is an effect called confirmation bias. Put more simply, this is a tendency for people to only seek out information that confirms what they already think. In many cases, people will examine the same information and come to wildly different conclusions because of their internal biases. Naturally, this makes objective thought and analysis extremely difficult to perform since we are not always the best judge of ourselves.

This effect becomes especially dangerous when it enters the financial arena. When evaluating investment strategies, many people (such as Robert Merton and Myron Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management) fail to examine possibilities that lay outside of their theory. Many hedge funds and derivatives traders create highly complex formula’s based on many assumptions that are usually true, but not always true. These financial models typically use large amounts of leverage, and are prone to tremendous losses if market movements do not match the model assumptions. Another iteration of this self-delusion is the tremendous run-up in housing prices that was based on the assumption home prices would never go down. There was ample evidence to indicate that housing prices could not increase forever, but it was completely ignored in favor of self-delusion by the government agencies, financial institutions, and borrowers who perpetuated the financial crisis.

The impact of confirmation bias also enters the political sphere on a regular basis. There are Nobel laureate economists in favor of higher taxes who claim to have evidence in support of their position and Nobel laureate economists in favor of lower taxes who also have evidence in support of their claim. When the government funds research studies, it is not surprising that the results of the study almost always come back confirming the original theory or hypothesis. Other ways that this phenomenon works its way into the political landscape is through metrics that are impossible to prove or disprove. One of the most famous is an ambiguous employment metric of “jobs created or saves”. It is impossible to objectively define a “saved” job, so the intellectual delusion is perpetuated.

The confirmation bias effect has even found its way into the scientific domain, as demonstrated most prominently in the climate science movement. What used to be called “global warming” has now been changed “climate change”. This makes every observation of temperature a “confirmation” of the hypothesis since the climate by its very nature is always changing. It should not come as any sort of surprise that the so-called “consensus” concerning climate change was completely fictional. It only resulted from suppressing voices of dissent and stifling debate so that the self-delusion of confirmation bias could continue without restraint. If the science was so strong, then it should be able to withstand a rigorous debate. If the proponents of the theory are not willing to debate, then it stands to reason that the science is not very strong.

In the end, it is and always will be extremely difficult to be objective. As astute individuals, we must learn to recognize the impacts of confirmation bias in ourselves and in the world around us. Since most of us do not possess the ability to change the world, we must squarely focus on the things that we do have the power to change… namely ourselves. When making an important decision, it is imperative to ‘step back’ and determine whether there is something we haven’t thought of that could squash our plans. By actively avoiding the bias of confirmation, it will help us to make more informed decisions and live a more fulfilled life.

Current Issues With COSO’s Draft Framework Update

Failures Within the COSO Framework Community

In 1992, COSO released its original Internal Control – Integrated Framework. This framework was in response to the requirements of the 1977 U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The framework’s stakeholders have raised the following issues in their comments to the draft COSO 2012 update:

1. The majority of the firms at the center of the global financial crisis were following the SEC regulations which included having an effective internal control over financial reporting (ICFR). The firms’ SEC filings all claimed to have effective ICFR under COSO. Their assessment approaches were failures.

2. COSO has not defined and declared the problems with the existing COSO Framework materials. It has embarked on creating to an updated solution to an undisclosed set of issues.

3. The COSO 2012 update of the framework was developed primarily from one frame of reference.

4. The development approach to this revision did not follow a “Good Judgment Workflow” process. The timing of the process does not provide for adequate review, discussion and consensus development among diverse stakeholders with differing frames of reference.

COSO created a summary definition for an internal control framework containing three control objective categories: operations, financial reporting and compliance. It has also divided the principles concerning controls into five summary components:

1. Risk Assessment

2. Control Environment – Tone at the Top

3. Control Activities

4. Information and Communication

5. Monitoring

COSO followed up on its original framework documentation with additional documentation on the principles and their attributes. In 2004, COSO produced guidance on how to design and implement an enterprise-wide risk management framework. In 2006, COSO issued its guidance for smaller public companies on the principles and attributes of an ICFR Framework. This document was used extensively by the SEC and the PCAOB in their guidance and audit regulations in 2007. A based set of principles-based documentation has been created for the evaluation and assessment of ICFR. COSO must be congratulated for avoiding use of a rules-based approach.

Various commenters are calling on COSO to accomplish the following:

1. Public companies that fall under the regulation of the SEC need to have creditable guidance on how to apply the principles to address the business opportunities and risks with an effective and unique set of internal controls. The guidance needs to provide a comprehensive methodology for the assessment of ICFR.

2. COSO must state clearly the problems with the current Framework materials and their usage in creating controls. There are extensive issues with the creation, maintenance and assessment of COSO frameworks by management. There have been significant corporate governance failings concerning the review of management’s assessments. It does not appear that the external auditors are yet clearly instructed by the regulators on how to play their assurance role. The SECs has a focus on ICFR.

3. COSO needs to directly address the quality control enhancements for Corporate Governance and Risk Assessment. Better Corporate Governance and Risk Assessment are essential to prevent and lessen executive management excesses. The initial SOX regulations and reactions to those SOX regulations did not address the Corporate Governance and Risk Management issues that Congress was trying to address with Sarbanes-Oxley. Auditing Standard 2 and the preponderance of management’s internal control frameworks ran to the detail processing of transactions ignoring entity -level risk assessments. This left open the door for the Corporate Governance and Risk Management failures: i.e. AIG, Fannie/Freddie, Lehman Brothers, Country Wide, Merrill Lynch, MF Global, Lehman Brothers, etc.

4. COSO must implement a “Good Judgment Workflow” process for the approval of the revisions to its materials. COSO needs to recognize that the developers are dominated by a single frame of reference: Big Auditing Firm Experience. Those of us who have been external auditors, internal auditors, CFO’s, CEO’s, consultants to SEC registered firms and educators on frameworks understand how limiting this frame of reference has been to presenting a workable comprehensive framework.

5. COSO needs to establish a strategic plan and a tactical plan for its activities concerning “Quality Controls” over Corporate Governance and the issuing of audited financial statements. The 1977 Foreign Corrupt Practices Act was the first federal mandate for internal control framework usage. COSO’s current Framework was created for addressing this requirement. Most stakeholders did not take this requirement seriously until the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was passed. In this 25 year period little work was accomplished to enhance the art of ICFR by COSO.

Confidence in COSO 2.0

Stakeholders are confident that COSO can move forward to produce a better set of guidance concerning the establishment, maintenance and assessment of internal control frameworks. Historically, COSO has created a number of guidance documents that have contributed to the improvement of internal control frameworks. Numerous professionals have reached a base level of competence in the components of an framework by using the COSO materials as part of their guidance. Auditing firms have greatly expanded their auditing of ICFR and the documentation of this testing in their workpapers. Audit quality controls systems are improving on most firms. The current members of COSO are motivated to the enhancement of the guidance being provided.

COSO needs to:

1. Establish a strategic and technical plan for the updating of the original COSO Framework which is a quality control methodology covering corporate governance, financial reporting and compliance.

2. Within the short-term tactical period:

a. Enhance the current development team with additional frames of reference.

b. Define a clear “good judgment workflow’ for comments, discussion and approval that creates a new base document.

c. Issue a clear problem statement that supports the enhancement efforts.

3. Recognize that if the private stakeholders do not create a comprehensive set of guidelines we will continue to have Congress and Regulators setting the guidelines.

4. Add to the membership and governance of COSO stakeholders that bring frames of reference including risk management, corporate governance, legal, information technology, quality control methodologies, operations, regulators, etc.

COSO will find that if all the stakeholders take part in the process, we can advance the state of the art in frameworks. If we can do this, we will create value for the society as a whole.

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